OIH potential  Head & Shoulders Top – (update)

A close below the neckline--around $130--is required to confirm a Head & Shoulders Top. Until that occurs, one has to respect the Bullish trend.

The chart of the OIH at the current level of around $131 may represent a low risk entry trade for the Bulls with a stop just under $130. Conversely, a break of the neckline is required for the Bears and a low risk short requires a buy stop above the $130 level.

Head & Shoulders Top is forming in the OIH & XLE

 

The chart of the OIH is forming a head and shoulders top as well as cracking its 200-day simple moving average.  The chart of the XLE is forming the same pattern although its 200-day sma has yet to be broken.  These developing chart patterns should be of significant concern for Crude Oil, Oil Stock, and Oil Service Stock Bulls.  A couple more down days from these levels portend a dramatic drop ahead.

Tighten Stops on Short Positions – Short Term Market Lows may be near.

It appears that this current move down is becoming exhausted.  As such, prudence dictates that protective stops for short positions suggested in my June 28 post should be brought down to the tightest levels.  Let the market dictate when you cover those short positions. Once this “short term” low is in place, the markets should gyrate wildly (high volatility) to higher levels for about 3 weeks or near mid August with the potential of hitting new lows (a retest) at slightly lower levels near the end of July not withstanding.  If you are extremely aggressive a long position in the QQQQ may offer the greatest upside volatility and price potential. Do not target July expiration.  The most prudent suggestion would be to go to CASH and await the next opportunity to short again from higher levels in a few weeks as this Bear Market has more to go in both price and time before intermediate term lows are reached a few months from now.

Gold Bulls Beware - Gold starts next leg down

Today’s strong downward reversal in Gold (an outside down day) signals the end of Gold’s upward correction.  Unless today’s high of $677.50 Gold is revisited, this may represent the last opportunity for Gold Bulls of the late April-early May speculative mania to get out with relatively small losses.  The next significant move in Gold could be down to the $450-$500 ($480) level.

 

Likewise – there are too many Oil Bulls

 

US Dollar Bears Beware – US Dollar breaks out

Today’s chart breakout in the US Dollar Index indicates further strength ahead. Although there may be sharp pullbacks along the way the US Dollar Index could work its way to the 89.30-89.60 level, which includes an open chart gap from April 13, as well as a descending trend line drawn off the price high on November 16, 2005.

Your 28 day T-Bill strategy is interesting. But, I have always feared "canned" strategies and prefer to play by the seat of my pants :)

Great Car!! Wish i could have it.

 

First of all, I hope your situation has improved for you.  Secondly, I implore you, please stick with your 28-day T-Bill strategy.  It will beat all other strategies for some time to come.

 

The rally in practically all indexes since the lows 9 or so days ago have been on declining volume.  The Fed policy statement and end of month balancing should be ignored.  Stocks in America and especially the emerging markets are on borrowed time - a couple of days or a couple of weeks.  It doesn't matter.  Your 28-day T-bill strategy and any activity other than speculating long the markets should give you more reason to get up each morning and enjoy each day. Try decorating, preparing healthy food for you and your family, exercise, play games - anything other than something you admit to not being successful with; that being speculating. 

The market low in early June was accompanied by extremely oversold levels , which was what led me to take a bullish stance for the short to intermediate term. We've had a rally since then, but its lack of exuberance has been very disappointing.

I indicated on June 13th that traders should establish long positions in select big cap names over the following week, but that investors should remain cautious with trailing stops. Now, I'm much less sanguine. I think traders should take profits on their long positions and even establish some short positions, even if the market rallies after the Fed decision on June 29th.

The next leg down in the unfolding Bear Market will likely be more devastating than the first six weeks that began around May 10th.  As I indicated then, I don't expect a major bottom in this cycle until late October - early November.

I was on some forum following some links i am here now!

 

Anyway i see some good reason;) to check back this page after some time.

 

 

Regards.

Mark.

 

Jimbo From San Diego,

I'd like to clarify further -- though writing about this will help me more  than you.  A year ago,  I was legally blind in one eye and my vision was not good in the other.  This Friday, I'll have yet another steriod injection in one eye and more laser treatment in the other.  My vision will improve for a couple of months, and then  probably deteriorate again. I feel trapped: I can't leave town, something might suddenly go wrong because of the steriods;  It is allergy season and I have to stay inside this house. 

 

More than anything I need a reason to get up in the morning and to work on something.  For now, that motivation is to daytrade the Q's.  I need  help to enter orders but my children have other things to do this summer.  So, I'm hoping next week my vision will be a lot better, or at least stabalize so I can get glasses. 

 

I know that my mental condition is not the best and maybe I should stay away from the markets.  For that reason, I haven't done anything for months and months.

 

I have enjoyed corresponding with you.  You've been very kind.  But now that I've let the cat out of the bag, so to speak, by that I mean my vision problem, I feel uncomfortable.  I really don't want any sympathy or anyone feeling sorry for me. 

So long.

Hey all,

 

Just thought I'd let you know, Thomasko is at it again this time squaring off with 6 so called professionals. He's up a quick 14% on day 2 of the competition! This guy is really off the hook!

 

He is slowly becoming my hero, (ummm.... maybe not)

 

Thanks for your clarification.  I now understand!

You have already paid the price of experience necessary to have a chance for success.